House cleaning. And a rare geopolitical musing.

Not since buying kosher Sauternes has an investment been so disappointing. And that's from a list including a poor Italian red Frizzante and a (just the one) medicinal Greek (which did not heal the wounds).

It is of Carnival Corporation that I speak. Much research, deep loss. I am beginning to self-confirm through such events a personal bias that the first scan of accounts and sector is usually enough to tell one the essentials. Rather than breath the firm it might be a better idea to try a new grape before some agreeable vista with friends instead.

So Carnival will be phased out in this current dip. Some other house cleaning will also occur: Human Genome Sciences will be cut back by half; the AMD short will be added to (not buying the separation of factory from research activities as a winner); and both Colgate and Campbell longs will be scaled back a half. All in the name of taking some long bias out of the portfolio.

Final equity matters. Two longs on the radar for those who like advance warning: Art Technology Group, sound financials and not far off good value in cash yield terms; and OTC-quoted GeoVax a firm best described as a risk-laden binary play on a promising preventative HIV vaccine. They have the funding in grant form (as well as take up from ever-diluting stock issues). Very large potential meriting a small investment - but the latest news release demands extremely careful reading in order not to be carried away by the PR.

Meanwhile, what about broader matters? Away from market fluctuations a question that has sat in my mind for 4 years is Iran's ("alleged", must put that in) pursuit of nuclear weapons. It has been bubbling away for so long it forms only background noise in finacial terms. Yet there are some new headlines in addition to the continued - and simplistic - definition in many press reports that it is mainly an Israeli problem.

Some of the developments around the story that look potentially catalytic: the recent Iranian election shambles; a new US President not wanting to look like Bush Jnr; and bombastic rhetoric and actions from Tehran even as an international coalition coalesces against them (including, most surely, some silent Arab nations).

The constant is a political will in Israel to act even in the knowledge it only buys time. 2000kms may be a big ask but the question that troubles this observer is not "when will they act?" or "will they act?" Assuming the international talking shops pass them the shekel there is little alternative - and it is not only students of history that should grasp this. It is "what will the fallback option be for the only regional nuclear power if the job is botched or half done?" That is where the short odds result sits in my book.